🟢 The Bull Case: Why HNT Can Rehit Its ATH
1. DePIN Momentum Is Real and Helium Is the Flagship
DePIN is becoming one of the defining narratives of the next cycle, and Helium is the first mover with a deployed global infrastructure. Being the “Ethereum of DePIN,” it has brand equity, historical significance, and a working model.
2. Real Usage Is Accelerating
Helium Mobile is attracting users with a $5/month unlimited plan. 5G data offload is no longer theoretical. The burn-and-mint model creates natural deflation if usage grows — potentially creating long-term price pressure on HNT in the upward direction.
3. Retail and Institutional Interest Could Return
In a narrative-driven market, Helium’s story — decentralized telecom, community-powered networks, a working MVNO — checks many boxes. With Solana tailwinds and crypto adoption rising, HNT could easily ride a resurgence of interest.
4. Tokenomics Create Reflexivity
The more users Helium has, the more HNT gets burned to mint Data Credits. The more HNT is burned, the lower the supply — creating a feedback loop that favors price appreciation if demand materializes.

🔴 The Bear Case: Why HNT May Never Rehit Its ATH
1. Still Little Real Demand for IoT or Mobile Offload
The network has hundreds of thousands of hotspots, but the data usage per device is tiny. The majority of rewards still come from proof-of-coverage emissions, not actual utility. Without real demand, the burn model fails to hold up.
2. Fragmented Focus and Execution Overhead
Running IoT, 5G, Wi-Fi, and an MVNO creates internal complexity. Each arm needs traction, but splitting efforts could lead to mediocrity across all fronts, rather than excellence in one.
3. Hyper-Competition from Giants and New DePIN Projects
Big Tech (Amazon Sidewalk, Google’s Thread) and new leaner DePIN startups (e.g., Dimo, Wayru) offer similar promises with potentially better token alignment or business models. Helium risks getting outpaced or forgotten.
4. Token Misalignment
Even if Helium Mobile succeeds, there’s no guarantee that HNT appreciates accordingly. A functional network doesn’t necessarily mean token price gains — especially if revenue is concentrated outside token holders’ control.

CTA - Conclusion
On one side, Helium is poised to lead the DePIN revolution — real-world usage is growing, token burns are picking up, and it’s got first-mover advantage in a category that’s just heating up. The community believes it could evolve into a core layer of global wireless infrastructure, slowly building back toward long-term value.
On the other side, the challenges are real: low current demand, tough competition, and unclear token alignment. Even if the network thrives, there’s no guarantee HNT regains its ATH — it could flatline, get absorbed into a bigger system, or simply fade out as newer players capture the spotlight.